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Incredulous Bears We Are

Tags: Fed, Market commentary, dia, iyt, RTH, spx, XLF, xlv, xly
6 Aug 2:51am
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In spite of all the fashionable buying today, our outlook over the next week or so isn’t particularly bullish, and here are some reasons why: Historically, it is really uncommon for the market to move up 2% the morning before a Fed announcement… …and in general, these big Fed rallies tend to end either in boredom or in tears over the following several trading days.  Over the past decade, these kinds of flashy rallies have been sustained less than 33% of the time one week lat...
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Midweek Reading

Tags: Economy, Fed, Market commentary, Politics
31 Jul 12:17pm
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The big news yesterday was that markets were able to push higher in spite of the rally in oil.  Of course, one data point doesn’t prove that equities and oil have decoupled, but this relationship certainly bears watching. Anyway, on our unending quest to help you procrastinate about whatever it is you should be doing, some links: Mish Shedlock offers some evidence that the credit crunch is only worsening: Businesses do not want to lend, consumers do not want to spend, financing approved...
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Check out The Liscio Report

Tags: Economy, Politics, bartels, gdp, henwood, liscio, president
29 Jul 8:10pm
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The authors of The Liscio Report - a favorite of Alan Abelson and Barry Ritholtz - are now blogging, and they’re off to a fantastic start.  This recent post surveys the correlations between Presidents, presidential party, and various economic indicators: Not to spoil the suspense too much, but here are the basic conclusions. Since Franklin Roosevelt’s third term (1941–44), Democrats have generally presided over faster growth and stronger stock markets than Republicans; Republican adminis...
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Ryanair: Airline, or Energy Bear Fund?

Tags: Bonus Trades, airline, energy, oil, ryaay, ryanair
28 Jul 7:27pm
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Ryanair (RYAAY) is down about 25% today after it warned that it would miss expectations for Q1 and would probably post a loss for 2008.  The reason?  They deliberately refused to hedge their exposure to oil prices… Ryanair said last year that it would not hedge against the rising cost of oil last year, unless fuel prices fell below $100 a barrel. …oh, until now, that is: However on Monday, O’Leary said the airline was now hedged 90.0% for September, at $129 a barrel, and 80....
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Option Strategies for Directionless Markets (Review)

Tags: Books, Iron Condor, Options Education, book review, box spread, butterfly, condor, gamma, Greeks, guts, interest rates, iron butterfly, iron pterodactyl, market neutral, natenberg, options, saliba, trading, vega, Volatility, wingspread
25 Jul 3:53pm
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Option Strategies for Directionless Markets: Trading with Butterflies, Iron Butterflies, and Condors Anthony J. Saliba, with Joseph C. Corona and Karen E. Johnson (Bloomberg Press: 2008) When traders are first exposed to spreading strategies like butterflies and iron condors, one of the first questions they always ask us is, “Can you recommend a book that goes into these strategies in more detail?  Where can I learn more?”  We’ve had to reply that there aren’t really an...
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Condor Options is an options trading newsletter service designed to help you generate consistent 10% monthly returns with just 10 minutes a week. We focus on the same strategy that professional options traders use every day: iron condors.

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