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Midweek Sméagol Reading

Tags: Economy, Market commentary, Politics, aapl, bespoke, bix, bkx, brett steenbarger, felix salmon, marketsci, mccain, ndx, obama, rimm, socialism for the rich, spy, XLF, xly
21 Aug 3:36am
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In a note yesterday morning to members, we were looking for an oversold rally, and said rally still has yet to materialize in any big way.  We still think the S&P will close the week closer to 1300 than to 1250, but that’s a conviction loosely held. The two biggest questions on our minds for the remainder of the week are: Will the financials stop dragging everybody down?  $BIX, $BKX, XLF all had a good day today, but they need to hold these levels. Will the Nasdaq leadership resume?...
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More on The Correlation Game

Tags: Market commentary, causation, cognitive bias, correlation, hume, news
19 Aug 1:42am
Posted by condoroptions
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We unveiled one of our favorite 4PM pastimes back in April: called The Correlation Game, the steps are simple: Step One: Point your browser at Yahoo Finance, Marketwatch, or whatever mainstream financial media portal suits your fancy. Step Two: Scan the top headline, which is typically of the form, “Markets move x on news that y.”  If the headline includes a dubious assumption or inference about causation, take a drink. Step Three: the next player moves to the next headline and/or...
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August Monthly Review

Tags: Economy, Market commentary, Monthly Review, bep, global economy, iron condors, iwm, market neutral, oil, options, ryanair, saliba, spy, wsj
17 Aug 2:20pm
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Last weekend, we noted that the next phase of this bear market will likely be driven not by U.S. financial companies or by energy prices per se, but rather by the effects of the American slowdown being felt by the rest of the world.  A front page story in the WSJ on Friday noted the falling Eurozone GDP as additional evidence of a global slowdown. Looking forward, we expect continued bullishness in equities next week as the lack of major news and the seasonal drop in volume draws in more hopef...
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They Have the Passports to Prove It

Tags: Market commentary, china, foetus gymnastics, nyse, trin
13 Aug 2:41pm
Posted by condoroptions
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So, uh, we have some LEAP options that are older than those Chinese gymnasts.  The word on the street is that they would’ve done even better this week, but some of them are still teething. The NYSE $TRIN is around 1.30, a level we haven’t seen since July 29.  For context, TRIN readings of 2.00 (0.75) are generally considered to denote oversold (overbought) conditions.  TRIN pushed above 2.00 on that date back in July, and the markets moved significantly higher on that day and the d...
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Sleepy Nasdaq

Tags: Bonus Trades, Calendar Spread, Volatility, adx, Greeks, mclellan oscillator, nasdaq, qqqq, rsi, synthetically equivalent
12 Aug 8:15pm
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Here are some data that have us thinking this afternoon: maybe the Nasdaq doesn’t resume its parabolic move from here. There are certainly plenty of short term reasons for Nasdaq bulls to frown and doze off for awhile: the QQQQs are up over 7% in 7 days.  Money flow has been stagnant.  The ADX line is only barely ticking up, and RSI readings at various periods are all inching toward overbought.  The McClellan Oscillator (attached) may have peaked, and even if we only see a little downsid...
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Condor Options is an options trading newsletter service designed to help you generate consistent 10% monthly returns with just 10 minutes a week. We focus on the same strategy that professional options traders use every day: iron condors.

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